Predictability of operational processes over finite horizon

Operational processes are usually studied in terms of stochastic processes. The main information measure used for predictability of stochastic processes is the entropy rate, which is asymptotic conditional entropy, thus not suitable for application over a finite horizon. We use the conditional entropy to study the predictability of stochastic processes over the finite horizon. It is well‐known that the conditional entropies of stationary processes decrease as the processes evolve, implying that, on average, their pasts become more informative about prediction of their future outcomes. Some important operational processes such as martingale, models for maintenance policies, nonhomogeneous Poisson, and mixed Poisson processes are nonstationary. We show that as a nonstationary process evolves, it may provide more information or less information about the future state of the system. We develop results for comparing the predictability of stochastic processes. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2011     

舰船战斗恢复力的设计要求和后勤要求

提出了舰船战斗恢复力的概念,简要概述了舰船战斗恢复力的设计要求与后勤要求,并介绍了舰船战斗恢复力量化的设想。     

A bivariate optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system with repair priority

In this article, an optimal replacement policy for a cold standby repairable system consisting of two dissimilar components with repair priority is studied. Assume that both Components 1 and 2, after repair, are not as good as new, and the main component (Component 1) has repair priority. Both the sequence of working times and that of the components'repair times are generated by geometric processes. We consider a bivariate replacement policy (T,N) in which the system is replaced when either cumulative working time of Component 1 reaches T, or the number of failures of Component 1 reaches N, whichever occurs first. The problem is to determine the optimal replacement policy (T,N)* such that the long run average loss per unit time (or simply the average loss rate) of the system is minimized. An explicit expression of this rate is derived, and then optimal policy (T,N)* can be numerically determined through a two‐dimensional‐search procedure. A numerical example is given to illustrate the model's applicability and procedure, and to illustrate some properties of the optimal solution. We also show that if replacements are made solely on the basis of the number of failures N, or solely on the basis of the cumulative working time T, the former class of policies performs better than the latter, albeit only under some mild conditions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2010     

三相磨料射流技术弹药除锈的工艺研究

影响三相磨料射流技术弹药除锈效果的工艺参数较多,如流体参数、磨料参数、喷嘴参数和作业参数等。通过对典型样品进行的多组试验和对试验结果的分析,初步得出了较好的除锈工艺参数,为进一步的实际应用提供了重要数据。     

机场道面抢修应急起降带的确定

应急起降带的确定是战时机场道面抢修的基础性工作,对抢修工程量、抢修效率、抢修进程都有着重大影响.首先介绍了应急起降带合理尺寸的确定;然后提出了应急起降带最佳抢修位置的确定原则;为了实现应急起降带方案的快速优选,用VB编写了方案优选程序,改变了传统的人工优选法费时费力的现状.从文中的实例分析可以得出结论:该方案优选程序的运算结果满足实际抢修施工需要.     

基于模糊评判的装备战损修复率评估

装备战损修复是保持和恢复战斗力的重要因素,而现在尚无明确的方法对修复率进行准确的评估.将模糊评判法引入评估过程中,通过分析各影响因素,运用模糊评判的方法进行量化,并根据战损装备修复流程图将各因素进行综合评判,确定了较为科学合理的装备战损修复率计算方法.     

两级修理模式下民机修理级别非经济性分析研究

针对两级修理模式在飞机维修规划中得到逐步重视的问题,提出了两级修理模式下民机修理级别非经济性分析模型。其中基于GJB-2961-1997标准,建立了两级修理级别分析的指标体系,在此基础上,利用模糊层次分析法确定各评价指标的权系数,并对灰色关联系数加权得到灰色关联度,实现了基于模糊层次分析法和灰色关联分析法的飞机修理级别综合评估。最后通过实例分析,验证了所提模型的合理性和有效性。     

机场道面润滑软毁伤抢修评估与分级

机场道面软毁伤抢修评估与分级是制定抢修预案和指挥员决策的重要依据,也是抢修组织与实施的量化基础.以润滑软毁伤为例,着重研究机场道面遭受润滑软毁伤后的抢修评估,提出了单一毁伤指标的定性抢修等级划分.结合吻合度模型,建立了以军事指标、毁伤指标、修复指标为宏观指标的定量抢修分级模型,并且通过算例验证分级的可行性和快捷性.所研...     

火药复合焊条焊接接头的微观组织及性能

为提高战场装备的应急抢修能力,以火药和2Al/3CuO系高热剂为焊接热源,开发了一种新型的便携式焊接材料——火药复合焊条,对其焊缝的组织形貌及性能进行研究.试验结果表明,火药复合焊条的焊接属于熔化焊,焊缝与基体之间存在明显的过渡区,焊缝成形良好,焊缝的抗拉强度大于400MPa,高于母材本身强度,能够满足战场应急抢修能力的需要.     

战场抢修力量建设与准备的思考

战场抢修是战时维修保障能力和战斗力的重要组成部分,它的成功与否关系到战争的胜负。笔者论述了战场抢修研究的必要性、迫切性,分析了战场损伤与抢修的特点及其对保障的要求,明确了战场抢修与平时维修的区别,提出了关于战场抢修力量建设与准备的几点建议。